Oscar Predictions

The Oscars are coming this weekend. I’ve done a pretty good job this year of seeing most of the nominated movies.  So, without further blabbing, here’s my predictions for who will take the Oscar home and who I think should.

Best Picture

This is the most interesting race because we have two very different front-runners.  The Hurt Locker is a great story with an extremely authentic look at human nature and war.  Avatar is a technological marvel but is also has a thin plot.  It’s also interesting because this is the first year with the crazy new voting structure.  There are 10 films nominated.  The voters rank the ten in order of preference. If one film has over 50% of #1 votes, it wins.  If not, then the film with the least #1 votes is elinimated and those votes are redistributed and the process begins again.  This means a film that doesn’t originally have the most #1 votes could end up winning.  Whatever, i don’t really care that much.  Here’s what i think:

The Hurt Locker is a great film.  Maybe my favorite war movie ever. It’s raw and gutsy.  Avatar is also a great movie.  It has a generic story but the look and feel of the film was spectacular.  When i left the theater, I had a “holy crap, that was really something” feeling that rarely happens after a movie.  Ten years from now, i’ll remember my Avatar viewing but probably not my Hurt Locker experience.  Thus, i’m voting for Avatar. Which will win?  Star Wars, a similarly seminal film, lost out to Rocky in 1977.  But Lord of The Rings won in 2003.   I don’t think LOTR wins if it’s only one film.  I think in general, the Academy doesn’t like voting for big blockbusters but i have a hunch Avatar wins here.  I want:  Avatar / Should Win: Avatar

Best Actress

All i can say is that Carey Mulligan was the best performance this year.  Hands down. That girl will be a star.  Sure, Meryl Streep was good in a Julia Childs movie but that movie wasn’t good.  If Sandra Bullock wins, i’ll throw up on my TV.  She was good but she was playing Sandra Bullock with a southern accent. Puh-lease.   Give it to Carrey.  I didn’t see Precious but i heard that gal was great.  So caveat this pick.   That said, i know that the Academy has a love affair with Meryl Streep and loves her.  They also hate giving it to first-timers.  I want: Carey Mulligan / Should Win: Meryl Streep

Best Actor

I’ll tell you right now that Jeff Bridges wins here.  Everyone loves him.  He’s awesome.  He’s The Dude. This is a total lock.  I’m still pissed that the guy from Notorious was nominated.  This guy not only acted like Biggie Smalls but was able to rap like him.  He’s the most nuanced rapper in history and this guy got it down. We gave an Oscar to Jamie Fox for Ray Charles and Reese for June Carter, we should give one to this guy.   Of the nominees who were actually nominated, i like Jeremy Renner the best. His performance was amazing. He owned that movie.  The George Clooney and Morgan Freeman nominations are a total joke.  I like both those guys but those are the best acting performances of the year? Really? I don’t think so.  So, I want: Jeremy Renner / Should Win: Jeff Bridges

Best Director

This is so similar to Best Picture.  I love The Hurt Locker and i give her extra props because she directed Point Break (check out this for a great spoof) but you have to give it to James Cameron.  It was always believed we’d get to a point where human actors were necessary.  A world where you’re only limited by your imagination.  George Lucas wanted that with Jar Jar Binks.  Nobody had been able to do it.  Now we have. James accomplished it – all it took was perseverance and half a billion dollars.   BUT, everyone hates James Cameron. People think he’s a dick.  I see the Academy not wanting him on the podium. Especially after his “I’m the king of the world” speech last time.  I see an upset and Kathryn winning.  I want: James Cameron / Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow

Best Supporting Actor

This one is even easier than Best Actor.  Christoph Waltz wins hands down.  He rocked that movie so hard, it wasn’t even funny.  His personality was so cunning and creepy.  You could see him toying with the other actors.  A little gesture here, an inflection here.  He put on an acting seminar.  Everyone else just pulled up a chair and starting taking notes.  I want: Christoph Waltz / Should Win: Christoph Waltz

Best Supporting Actress

I have no idea who wins this. I hear the Precious gal was great.  Of the other 4, i like Vera Farmiga the best.  She was great in The Departed and was great here too.  Maggie was ok, but not award-winning.  Anna was good but more annoying than inspiring.  Penelope Cruz was in a horrible movie.  So it’s between Mo’nique and Vera.  I’ll wager that Mo’nique gets it because it seems to be more of a moving role.  I want: Vera Farmiga / Should Win: Mo’nique

Best Animated Film

Up is the best animated film but my favorite is Fantastic Mr. Fox.  It is one of my favorite films of the entire year.  Wes Anderson goodness.  I’ve seen the film twice and would be happy to see it another 20 times.  Loved it. I want: Fantastic Mr. Fox / Should Win: Up

Original Screenplay

The Hurt Locker takes this one.  The Coen brothers wrote a seriously awesome screenplay in Serious Man but it wasn’t that fun and the Academy hates not fun movies that aren’t about the Holocaust.  I don’t think anyone really took Inglorious Basterds seriously and people will feel bad voting for Avatar over Hurt Locker and want to throw the film at least one Oscar.  I want: Hurt Locker / Should Win: Hurt Locker

Adapted Screenplay

Everyone loves Jason Reitman.  He’s cool, he’s on a roll, his movies are good and his part of the Hollywood family.  People see Up In The Air and they think it’s a movie of our times.  It’s not, but they’ll give him the Oscar anyway.  I personally prefer An Education. That movie was creepy, joyful, and inspiring all at the same time. Nicky Hornby rocked that one.  He’s also been a on a roll with About a Boy and High Fidelity I want: An Education & Nick Hornby / Should Win: Jason Reitman

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3 thoughts on “Oscar Predictions
  1. Avatar? Really? I mean, come on. Yes: amazing technology advancements. Yes, very cool to look at. But … no. Throw it a bone for “Best fancypants looking techy stuff.” I didn't leave the theater with that “Wow” feeling, I left with more of a “Huh, that was decent enough to get over the annoying the 3D stuff” (I should caveat that I hate 3D. Hate. It gives me a headache and takes away from the whole experience).

    If we're comparing this to the Rocky v Star Wars — Rocky totally should have won. Star Wars was neat, but Rocky is the movie I remember and was really impacted by. Avatar has some cool stuff going on and is amazing to look at, but the charecters are completely forgettable, the story is a retread, and seriously all I remember is being impressed that I didn't mind sitting through the whole thing. When I look at the verus Inglorious Bastards, which I STILL find myself thinking about– dude, there is no contest.

  2. my picks
    Best Picture – Avatar
    Actor – Jeff Bridges (but i want Jeremy Renner to win)
    Supporting Actor – Christoph Waltz
    Actress – Sandra Bullock
    Supporting Actress – Maggie Gyllenhaal
    Animated Film – Up (but i want anything else to win)
    Director – The Hurt Locker
    Original Screenplay – The Hurt Locker
    Adapted Screenplay – District 9 – i know – its a long long shot – this is my hopeful pick

  3. I didn't realize that Star Wars lost out to Rocky. I remember it as losing out to Taxi Driver. Even though I am a huge Star Wars fan, Rocky was the better film and I am disappointed that you would marginalize it. It was the classic story of an individual triumphing over adversity. Although hundreds of movies have revolved around the “underdog” theme, no movie has done it better than Rocky:

    Promoter: Rocky, do you believe that America is the land of opportunity?

    Rocky: Yes, I do.

    Promoter: Well so does Apollo Creed. And he wants to prove it by giving an unknown a shot at the title. It's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, Rocky. You can't pass it up!

    Just notice the look on Rocky's face when he decides to fight Apollo, and tell me that Rocky is not a better film than Star Wars. Everyone can relate to that one moment. It's that moment when you realize that every dog can have his day. Every lifetime comes down to a few crazy decisions. Maybe they work out and maybe they don't, but the opportunity is what counts.

    Star Wars was awesome, but Rocky is the better film. It's even more amazing that Rocky won Best Picture when you consider that most people in Hollywood have leftist political views. Leftists believe that progress has to be a collective struggle. They don't believe in an individual's power to improve his own circumstances. The fact that even leftist Hollywood types recognized the power of Rocky shows that it is awesome. Or something.

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