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The Oscars are coming this weekend. I’ve done a pretty good job this year of seeing most of the nominated movies.  So, without further blabbing, here’s my predictions for who will take the Oscar home and who I think should.

Best Picture

This is the most interesting race because we have two very different front-runners.  The Hurt Locker is a great story with an extremely authentic look at human nature and war.  Avatar is a technological marvel but is also has a thin plot.  It’s also interesting because this is the first year with the crazy new voting structure.  There are 10 films nominated.  The voters rank the ten in order of preference. If one film has over 50% of #1 votes, it wins.  If not, then the film with the least #1 votes is elinimated and those votes are redistributed and the process begins again.  This means a film that doesn’t originally have the most #1 votes could end up winning.  Whatever, i don’t really care that much.  Here’s what i think:

The Hurt Locker is a great film.  Maybe my favorite war movie ever. It’s raw and gutsy.  Avatar is also a great movie.  It has a generic story but the look and feel of the film was spectacular.  When i left the theater, I had a “holy crap, that was really something” feeling that rarely happens after a movie.  Ten years from now, i’ll remember my Avatar viewing but probably not my Hurt Locker experience.  Thus, i’m voting for Avatar. Which will win?  Star Wars, a similarly seminal film, lost out to Rocky in 1977.  But Lord of The Rings won in 2003.   I don’t think LOTR wins if it’s only one film.  I think in general, the Academy doesn’t like voting for big blockbusters but i have a hunch Avatar wins here.  I want:  Avatar / Should Win: Avatar

Best Actress

All i can say is that Carey Mulligan was the best performance this year.  Hands down. That girl will be a star.  Sure, Meryl Streep was good in a Julia Childs movie but that movie wasn’t good.  If Sandra Bullock wins, i’ll throw up on my TV.  She was good but she was playing Sandra Bullock with a southern accent. Puh-lease.   Give it to Carrey.  I didn’t see Precious but i heard that gal was great.  So caveat this pick.   That said, i know that the Academy has a love affair with Meryl Streep and loves her.  They also hate giving it to first-timers.  I want: Carey Mulligan / Should Win: Meryl Streep

Best Actor

I’ll tell you right now that Jeff Bridges wins here.  Everyone loves him.  He’s awesome.  He’s The Dude. This is a total lock.  I’m still pissed that the guy from Notorious was nominated.  This guy not only acted like Biggie Smalls but was able to rap like him.  He’s the most nuanced rapper in history and this guy got it down. We gave an Oscar to Jamie Fox for Ray Charles and Reese for June Carter, we should give one to this guy.   Of the nominees who were actually nominated, i like Jeremy Renner the best. His performance was amazing. He owned that movie.  The George Clooney and Morgan Freeman nominations are a total joke.  I like both those guys but those are the best acting performances of the year? Really? I don’t think so.  So, I want: Jeremy Renner / Should Win: Jeff Bridges

Best Director

This is so similar to Best Picture.  I love The Hurt Locker and i give her extra props because she directed Point Break (check out this for a great spoof) but you have to give it to James Cameron.  It was always believed we’d get to a point where human actors were necessary.  A world where you’re only limited by your imagination.  George Lucas wanted that with Jar Jar Binks.  Nobody had been able to do it.  Now we have. James accomplished it – all it took was perseverance and half a billion dollars.   BUT, everyone hates James Cameron. People think he’s a dick.  I see the Academy not wanting him on the podium. Especially after his “I’m the king of the world” speech last time.  I see an upset and Kathryn winning.  I want: James Cameron / Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow

Best Supporting Actor

This one is even easier than Best Actor.  Christoph Waltz wins hands down.  He rocked that movie so hard, it wasn’t even funny.  His personality was so cunning and creepy.  You could see him toying with the other actors.  A little gesture here, an inflection here.  He put on an acting seminar.  Everyone else just pulled up a chair and starting taking notes.  I want: Christoph Waltz / Should Win: Christoph Waltz

Best Supporting Actress

I have no idea who wins this. I hear the Precious gal was great.  Of the other 4, i like Vera Farmiga the best.  She was great in The Departed and was great here too.  Maggie was ok, but not award-winning.  Anna was good but more annoying than inspiring.  Penelope Cruz was in a horrible movie.  So it’s between Mo’nique and Vera.  I’ll wager that Mo’nique gets it because it seems to be more of a moving role.  I want: Vera Farmiga / Should Win: Mo’nique

Best Animated Film

Up is the best animated film but my favorite is Fantastic Mr. Fox.  It is one of my favorite films of the entire year.  Wes Anderson goodness.  I’ve seen the film twice and would be happy to see it another 20 times.  Loved it. I want: Fantastic Mr. Fox / Should Win: Up

Original Screenplay

The Hurt Locker takes this one.  The Coen brothers wrote a seriously awesome screenplay in Serious Man but it wasn’t that fun and the Academy hates not fun movies that aren’t about the Holocaust.  I don’t think anyone really took Inglorious Basterds seriously and people will feel bad voting for Avatar over Hurt Locker and want to throw the film at least one Oscar.  I want: Hurt Locker / Should Win: Hurt Locker

Adapted Screenplay

Everyone loves Jason Reitman.  He’s cool, he’s on a roll, his movies are good and his part of the Hollywood family.  People see Up In The Air and they think it’s a movie of our times.  It’s not, but they’ll give him the Oscar anyway.  I personally prefer An Education. That movie was creepy, joyful, and inspiring all at the same time. Nicky Hornby rocked that one.  He’s also been a on a roll with About a Boy and High Fidelity.  I want: An Education & Nick Hornby / Should Win: Jason Reitman

John Hughes wrote and directed some of my favorite childhood movies.  Movies like Ferris Bueller’s Day Off, Planes, Trains and Automobiles, The Breakfast Club, Pretty In Pink, Uncle Buck and more.  I was pretty sad to hear about his death last year.   There is a good article in Vanity Fair this month with quotes from actors from his movies including Matthew Broderick, Anthony Michael Hall, and Molly Ringwald.  Some good excerpts:

Ringwald: I remember the first thing that I saw of him—I didn’t know what he looked like; I didn’t know anything—were his tennis shoes. He was really into sneakers. It was not what I really thought of as a film director. His hair was spiky. He looked kind of relatable to me.

Hall: The word “dweebie”? Gotta credit Judd Nelson for that. I was on the Breakfast Clubset when he ad-libbed that. I think Judd’s responsible for that being part of our vernacular: him yelling, “You’re a neo-maxi-zoom-dweebie!” I remember John laughing.

Broderick: It was extremely pleasing to make John laugh. He had a quiet, very real, uncontrollable laugh: an eyes-closed, head-half-down, bent-over-quiet thing.

Hall: There’s a scene in The Breakfast Club between the principal and the janitor, Paul Gleason and John Kapelos, where one asks, “Who’d you want to be when you grow up?” and the other says, “John Lennon.” I think that was really John to some extent. He was such a Beatles fan.

Hall: When I was doing Weird Science, I got a call from my agent on a Wednesday, saying, “Stanley Kubrick is interested in you for a role in his Vietnam drama that he’s doing, Full Metal Jacket.” Got a call back on a Friday saying, “Well, now he wants you for the lead, as Private Joker. He’s gonna call you tomorrow.”  All I can compare this to is waiting for Oz to call. The stories preceded him: his privacy, living in London, sort of extricating himself from Hollywood, all that shit. I was shaking in my boots. The phone rings. Stanley Kubrick gets on and says, “I want you to know: I just screened Sixteen Candles three times … and you’re my favorite actor since I saw Jack in Easy Rider!” I’m like, “Whaaa? Am I fucking hearing this?”

The long and short of it was, it was such a drawn-out, wild process of negotiating with Kubrick, via his attorneys, that it had a real effect on my family. [Hall ultimately withdrew from the negotiations.] But my point in telling this story is, had I not had this collaboration with this great guy, I never would have gotten that call from Kubrick. I received the greatest compliment of my life, and I owe that to John Hughes.

I watched An Education this weekend and thought it was a great movie.   The film tells the story of a 16-year-old girl who is the target of a sophisticated seduction by a 35-year-old man. This happens in 1961, when 16-year-old girls were more naive and were actually (sort of) looking for older men to take care of them.

The movie has a good script, but the real story is the job played by British actress Carey Mulligan who plays the 16-year old girl.  Watching the movie with the Kesners, we all couldn’t help but comment how she reminds us of Audrey Hepburn.  There’s no one else that came to mind.  The movie could have been sad or creepy but because of Carey’s lightness and joy of character, it is instead it is a romance.  In 1998, I remember watching the movie Playing By Heart which has a few small roles for a little-known actress named Angelina Jolie.  I remember and seeing her absolutely kill every scene. I knew i was watching someone who was going to be a star.  Although two completely different actresses, I felt the same way about An Education and Carey.

Check it out – it’s a good movie.

Wes Anderson was rumored to be directing the new Spider-Man. Here’s a take of what that’d look like

I was listening today to an NPR podcast with George Lucas (download). He has a new book out where he discusses the 300 most influential and impressive blockbuster movies to him. For each film, he does some significant research into the casting, the shooting schedule, the budget, and the result. He adjusts for inflation so you can see the true impact older films had. Some interesting tidbits:

• The average ticket price in 1910 was $6 and the average ticket price today is $6. I find that amazing.
• The music licensing for Lucas’ first film American Graffiti cost him 70k because he was instructed to keep his costs under 10% of his 700k budget. He licensed 2 albums worth of rock. People told him that he was insane to do that. Every other film prior to that had be scored. Nobody had thrown music on top of film. First, it’s amazing that this is the film that changed that. Second, a year later the studio was trying to license all the music for an album to be released and it cost them $1 million. In one year, the industry changed that much. Wow
• Jurrasic Park was the one movie that really changed the digital landscape.  Prior to that everything looked like an effect. After JP he knew you could make anything
• Star Wars was revolutionary to Lucas in that you could make a 2 foot green person seem lifelike. That was the first time there had been an imaginary life-like character in film. Really changed the game. 2001 was the biggest movie at the time and was seen as the best, most creative sci-fi film ever. However, Lucas saw it as a set of still shots and wanted to introduce energy into special effects shot. He wanted to be able to pan the camera through space and not just have one shot.
• 3D is new and Lucas looked at using it for Episode I but the techology wasn’t there.
• He and Spielberg used to trade equity points in their films.  Lucas always thought Spielberg’s films were better than his and Spielberg thought the opposite so each trades a few points of equity in each of their films before they were released.  For example, Close Encounters of the 3rd Kind came out when Star Wars came out and Lucas preferred Close Encounters and Spielberg thought Star Wars would crush it.  Guess Steven knew better