Where my head is at
I was talking with various people about the end game today. When does this end? There seem to be 3 outcomes I can think of:
- A vaccine developed and rolled out. When this happens, we can then begin to treat this like the flu and go back to regular behavior, and just stay away from those who are sick. This seems to be 9-12 months out. There’s a good article about Moderna, the company who is leading the race to develop the vaccine. It was created by a VC firm and is now a public company.
- Everybody gets it. Once almost all people have had it, then a general immunity is there and we all can go back to regular behavior. This seems unlikely but it’s possible. This seems 12 months out too. In this case, the disease is still very dangerous so there would still be fear by those who haven’t gotten the disease yet.
- Something new happens. I’m not sure what this is but many we develop enough tests that we do massive testing. Any time you leave the house, you test and then when you return, you test. If there are tests happening daily we could accurately confine those who are sick and keep the public safe.
None of these are happening within 2-3 months. The new normal of social distancing and staying away from crowds seems to be here to stay, at least for a year. I could see this having some good and bad effects on society. A few that come to mind…
- Bad: Those who are extroverted getting very stressed out and dangerously going out in public
- Bad: Those in bad relationships and marriages having tough times
- Good: People getting really good at video conferencing and FaceTime, and new systems emerging to be able to remotely converse collectively
- Good: Online learning gets way better.
Finally, i have no idea how i’m going to get a haircut. Perhaps the male hairstyles of this time will all consist of long hair
What’s Happening: Lockdown is happening full effect
- A “shelter in place” order was place on all of California
- Canada-US border is now shut.
- Many schools are closing for the rest of the academic year. I imagine this will be ours too soon. I’m hearing the first rumblings of closing for the entire CALENDAR year. That’s intense.
Apparently Some people in Florida haven’t gotten the message that this is happening and are hitting the beach
Clearwater Beach, Florida is PACKED today despite “social distancing” recommendations.
We Americans sure can be a dumb lot…pic.twitter.com/LRU06h2d03
— Rex Chapman🏇🏼 (@RexChapman) March 16, 2020
Other Items
- Universal theater is now bringing movies to on-demand the same time as it comes to theaters. If this happens more broadly this will kill the windowing system. That hasn’t happened yet but it feels like the end is coming for movie theaters. I love seeing movies in theaters but I also love the convenience of staying home and in this environment, you might as well give films to people in their homes.
- The IRS pushed back the date you need to pay your taxes by 90 days
- Celebrities getting the virus: Idris Elba and Kevin Durant
- Amazon is hiring 100k workers as demand for packages are off the hook.
Stats:
- Worldwide: 207k cases, 8275 deceased
- US: 6436 cases, 115 deceased
- Marin: 11 cases, 0 deceased
