Author: Mike Lewis

YouTube and Walmart

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I recently read a post about advertising on online video.  It’s a good post but probably too detailed for most people.  One thing in the post that stuck out is how big Walmart is and also how big YouTube is.  It got me thinking.  Pretty interesting stuff about two behemoths of our time.  Here are some details: 

Walmart is ginormous: 

  • 8% of every dollar spent in America is spent at Walmart  
  • They have more than 4,000 locations and sell more than $34 billion / month.
  • If Walmart were a country it would be the 19th largest in the world.

YouTube is also huge:

  • 1 billion monthly uniques hit the site
  • 40% of the online population uses YouTube every month
  • 6 billion hours of watched video a month. That’s enough for every human on earth to watch 150 videos a year. 
  • 63% of all videos watched in the US are on YouTube

 

The point of the article is that if you’re in the online video business, it’s foolish to try to do anything without thinking about YouTube. Similarly, it’d be foolish for a retailer to not want to sell their product through Walmart. 

 

 

SNL and Wes Anderson’s Parody Trailer

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Saturday Night Live is definitely hit or miss.  Sometimes they can crush a skit but then the follow that up with 4 skits that aren’t even remotely funny.  That said, i watch every week and generally find myself laughing at least at a few of the skits. 

A recent skit that Diane and I both loved was this Wes Anderson horror movie trailer: 

What’s even better is the guy who created the short blogged the whole thing and talked about how hard it was to mimic Wes’s style – and how hard it is to film a horror movie trailer in the middle of NYC.   Its’ a great read if you love Wes Anderson films.  Makes you appreciate how hard his crazy style is. 

Well done SNL. This is why I’m a regular viewer. 

 

Trying to Reach the Sun

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Starting a business is hard.  There’s always the fear of failing and when things fail, the idea that it was all your fault and you could have done things better. It’s a shitty feeling.  That’s what struck me about this poem below was it celebrates the accomplishment before the failure.  I often think about the skiing mantra, “if you’re not falling, you’re not trying hard enough.” 

So, to all of you who are trying to reach the sun like Icarus, bless you, and keep on flying…

Failing and Flying

Everyone forgets that Icarus also flew.
It’s the same when love comes to an end,
or the marriage fails and people say
they knew it was a mistake, that everybody
said it would never work. That she was
old enough to know better. But anything
worth doing is worth doing badly.
Like being there by that summer ocean
on the other side of the island while
love was fading out of her, the stars
burning so extravagantly those nights that
anyone could tell you they would never last.
Every morning she was asleep in my bed
like a visitation, the gentleness in her
like antelope standing in the dawn mist.
Each afternoon I watched her coming back
through the hot stony field after swimming,
the sea light behind her and the huge sky
on the other side of that. Listened to her
while we ate lunch. How can they say
the marriage failed? Like the people who
came back from Provence (when it was Provence)
and said it was pretty but the food was greasy.
I believe Icarus was not failing as he fell,
but just coming to the end of his triumph.

Who Would You Invest In? Salesforce vs. LinkedIn

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I like playing this game.  It’s a game where you have to force yourself to choose to invest between two (arguably) overpriced companies.  I’m been doing it once a year between Foursquare and Quora.  Go ahead and make your vote there.

I read today in a good article about LinkedIn’s business that the two companies LinkedIn and Salesforce.com have the roughly the same market cap at $30 billion (Linkedin lately has cruised past it even more to $32).  So here’s the game: If you had to put 80% of your entire life savings into stock of one of these companies, which do you choose?  A breakdown:

LinkedIn:

  • Current market cap: $32 billion
  • 2013 Q2 revenue: $364 million
  • Net income last quarter: $3.7 million
  • Growth rate: 12% last quarter & 60% over the last 12 months

Salesforce

  • Current market cap: $30 billion
  • 2013 Q3 revenue: $957 million
  • Net Income in Q3: $76 million
  • Growth rate: 7% last quarter & 31% over the last 12 months

I think from these comparisons, you can see that SF is twice the size, but growing at half the rate. If both companies keep growing at the same rate, LinkedIn will be bigger in 5.5 years and almost double the size of Salesforce in 9 years. The market really rewards growth and doesn’t seem to care about profits from newish companies.

Personally, i’m putting my money into Salesforce, but it’s interesting to see how much the market loves LinkedIn.  In my daily work life, i use both. We have all our sales information in Salesforce and can’t operate without it.  All of tools plug into it (Eloqua, Totango, Desk.com, etc.).  At the same time we’re hiring and not a day goes by where i’m not looking at someone at LinkedIn or trying to contact them through that platform.  It’s proven to be invaluable when hiring.  I can see it breaking into new businesses and growing fast.

That said, i can’t see Salesforce being replaced any time soon – and the pricing is much better.  We pay less than $1000 a year for LinkedIn (for the ability to message people) but well over $30k a year for Salesforce.

Who would you bet on?

[poll id=”4″]

 

 

Apple Maps vs. Google Maps: A Rant

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I recently heard someone talk about what a bad move it was for Apple to release their own Maps app on the iPhone.  I’ve heard this maybe half a dozen times lately and I couldn’t disagree more.  We should all be happy this happened.  Here’s why…

About a year ago when there was no Apple Maps, the situation was this:

  • The default map app on the phone was Google maps
  • Apple had repeatedly been negotiating with Google to have them provide turn-by-turn directions and voice navigation in their app on the iPhone.  Google had turned them down time and time again so they could promote Android phones and claim some level of superiority.
  • Apple had no alternative but to accept that Google was sandbagging their iPhone app

Fast forward to today.  Apple releases Maps which has turn-by-turn directions that are way better than the old Google app.  Google was rendered to be an optional app on phone and because of this fact they stepped up their development efforts and made the Google maps app way better than their previous app.

Today iPhone users have two great options for maps and both options are way better than they had a year ago.  If Apple hadn’t done anything, we’d probably still be stuck with a second-tier version of Google maps.

So, Apple’s probably pretty happy with their decision.  The iPhone mapping capability is at the very least comparable to Android, something they couldn’t claim a year ago.

Ok, i can now go back to work.  Thanks for letting me rant.

May 2015 Update: 

Looking at this latest report you can see that 84% of cell phone users get turn-by-turn navigation while driving.  Looks like Apple made a good call to really shake up the platform to get that functionality in there.

Screen Shot 2015-05-27 at 9.44.41 AM

 

 

Mr. Mom: Things I’ve Learned

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So, i don’t know if i’ve told you this, Dear Reader, but I’ve been doing the Mr. Mom thing over here for 3 week.  I’m doing this because Diane is working in Colorado Springs Monday-Friday on a film.  It’s always been her dream to both work in Colorado and work on films.  This was her first opportunity, and passing on it was just not in the cards.  So, i’m not at home, a la Michael Keaton.

So, what have I learned in these three weeks: Continue reading “Mr. Mom: Things I’ve Learned” →

Be a Little Kinder

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This speech, sent to me by my cousin Nelly, really made my night tonight.  It’s by Syracuse professor and NYTimes writer George Saunders.

I think it’s a great message we all should listen to:

Down through the ages, a traditional form has evolved for this type of speech, which is: Some old fart, his best years behind him, who, over the course of his life, has made a series of dreadful mistakes (that would be me), gives heartfelt advice to a group of shining, energetic young people, with all of their best years ahead of them (that would be you).

And I intend to respect that tradition.

Now, one useful thing you can do with an old person, in addition to borrowing money from them, or asking them to do one of their old-time “dances,” so you can watch, while laughing, is ask: “Looking back, what do you regret?”  And they’ll tell you.  Sometimes, as you know, they’ll tell you even if you haven’t asked.  Sometimes, even when you’ve specifically requested they not tell you, they’ll tell you.

So: What do I regret?  Being poor from time to time?  Not really.  Working terrible jobs, like “knuckle-puller in a slaughterhouse?”  (And don’t even ASK what that entails.)  No.  I don’t regret that.  Skinny-dipping in a river in Sumatra, a little buzzed, and looking up and seeing like 300 monkeys sitting on a pipeline, pooping down into the river, the river in which I was swimming, with my mouth open, naked?  And getting deathly ill afterwards, and staying sick for the next seven months?  Not so much.  Do I regret the occasional humiliation?  Like once, playing hockey in front of a big crowd, including this girl I really liked, I somehow managed, while falling and emitting this weird whooping noise, to score on my own goalie, while also sending my stick flying into the crowd, nearly hitting that girl?  No.  I don’t even regret that. Continue reading “Be a Little Kinder” →

When Google Glass Wins

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I don’t really like Google Glass as it is now.  There’s no way that the look of it will ever let it go mainstream. However, i do like:

  1. how you can just click a button and video record everything you’re looking at
  2. Take a picture of what you’re seeing quickly and easily
  3. Overlay a map on top of whatever you’re viewing

What i want to happen is for them to build just these three use cases into normal looking glasses.  Get a few versions of Warby Parker that have Glass integration into them.  Then it’ll be sweet. I want to wear regular-looking glasses and go about my day and if i want just touch something and have it start recording.  That’s when Google Glass wins. 

You’ll Never Make Money with a Music App

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I’ve said this a million times and i’ll say it again for the record.  If you’re a music internet application and you have full music streams, you’re not making any money.

I was reminded about this again today when i read this article about Spotify:

Spotify’s 2012 results are out today, with Reuters reporting that the private company had revenue of 435 million euros, and a 58.7 million euro net loss.

The revenue figure is impressive, more than doubling 2011′s 190 million euro tally. However, the company’s net loss widened in the year, even as it saw a dramatic expansion of its top line from 45.4 million euros to the aforementioned 58.7 million figure.

For some background, Toby and I founded the music company Qloud back in 2006.  We had 20 million monthly users, did over a million streams a day, and were acquired by SpinMedia.  But, given that kind of traffic, there was still no way we could make money.  Let me explain why:

  • If you need music for your product, you need to sign contracts with the major music labels. There are 4 of them. These labels require upfront payments of around a million dollars a one or two year deal (at least at the time they did). Your payments to them are then debited out of those upfront payments.   So, you need a good amount of capital to even get started.
  • The major labels have seen big tech companies receive big payouts (such as Last.fm’s $200 million exit) and are upset that tech companies are making money while their business erodes.  As a result, they want equity in any company they do a deal with so they can share in the upside.
  • The major labels do not think the success of your company is due to your product chops or your ability to market well.  No, they believe your success is due to the quality of their content.
  • This is the most important one: Your contract with them is for one or two years.  If you report a profit at the end of the term, they will interpret that fact as their cut is too small and you can expect to pay more in your next deal.

That last point is the key point. You’ll never make a profit.  They will never allow for it.  You’ve signed a deal with the devil and unless you can have a product that doesn’t rely on a mainstream back catalog of music (i.e. eMusic), you’re screwed.

So, while i love Spotify and Rdio and use them all the time, don’t expect them to IPO any time soon, or ever.

Jerry Seinfeld Still Has It

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I love watching standup comedy.  I’ve always thought that good standup is 50% content and 50% delivery. Some people are great at delivery (Sam Kinison, Aziz, Michael Richards) and some people have great content (Patton Oswalt), some are just pretty good at both (Jim Gaffigan, Daniel Tosh), while the legends are great at both (Chris Rock, Seinfeld, Dave Chappelle). 

It had been a while since I’d seen Jerry Seinfeld do standup, but I recently went and saw him that the Buell Theater in Denver.  Let me tell you, he killed it. I was crying for most of the show.  He’s still got it. Here’s a clip of some of his new stuff that he did on Jimmy Fallon: 

I also listed to him on Howard Stern where he did a really long interview.  He goes deep into his process of creating a joke and while he’s still doing comedy. I love long interviews like this.  

Some items

  • Talks about how bad network TV execs are about being able to determine what is funny. What they are good at is finding funny people, but the more involvement 
  • He was offered over $100 million to do another season of Seinfeld show
  • He has a strong sense that timing is everything. He knows how great his TV show was, he’s loath to do another one, he knows it could never be as good. As he says, you can love a comedian at an hour and 10 minutes and hate him at an hour and  30 and that’s why he had to end the show.  He said that the audience would turn on him if they did another season. 
  • He thought that Martin Short could have played the Kramer character
  • He saw no need to put women and blacks on “Seinfeld,” but after ten episodes Colin Quinn told him he was gonna get in trouble for it, and he did.